A gold coin invested at 3% above inflation at the time of Christ would be worth today as much as a sphere of gold four times larger than the world. This implies that over time even this growth rate is not feasible – not because it is high in times of stability but because every few [...]
Abstract: This paper examines whether positive and negative money-supply shocks have symmetric effects on output. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that positive money-supply shocks do not have an effect on output, while negative money-supply shocks do have an effect on output. This finding is independent of whether or not expected money is assumed [...]
Do companies which try to do new things succeed and why? Phin Upham dicusses a seminal work on the topic In Diversification, Ricardian rents, and Tobin’s q, Cynthia A. Montgomery and Birger Wernerfelt present a study on the ability of a multimarket firm to diversify its resources (factors). Montgomery and Wernerfelt test whether a multimarket firm’s average [...]
We face a prolonged economic slowdown, high unemployment and financial pain. Phin Upham discusses some of the reasons. The current popular debate among the Federati in Washington and the Literati in newsprint is over whether the world will end in fire or ice – whether the US is headed toward hyperinflation or a continued downward spiral [...]
Which tree will grow to be the tallest? A cautionary tale for investors by Phineas Upham . When looking at investing from a global perspective, sometimes it helps to see the forest rather than the trees. It is necessary to blend together different lenses to see what others are not seeing. If, for example, there were a competition [...]
Companies exist in a web of suppliers, partners and allies. How do these relationships affect success. Phin Upham discusses a seminal work in the field. In Specialized Supplier Networks as a Source of Competitive Advantage: Evidence from the Auto Industry, Jeffrey Dyer presents a compelling and interesting case for the interrelation of inter-firm specificity and [...]
written by Phin Upham Abstract: The usefulness of models that describe the world lies in their simplicity relative to what they model. But simplification entails inaccuracy, so models should be treated as provisional. Nancy Cartwright’s account of science as a modeling exercise, in which fundamental laws hold true only in theory—not in reality, given the [...]
Abstract: This paper summarizes the current state of the art and recent trends in software engineering economics. It provides an overview of economic analysis techniques and their applicability to software engineering and management. It surveys the field of software cost estimation, including the major estimation techniques available, the state of the art in algorithmic cost [...]
Asked to describe John Rawls, his old friend and fellow philosopher, Rogers Albritton said, “My principle sense of Jack is of a man who has an incredibly fine moral sense in his dealings with other human beings. He is not just the author of a great book; he is a very admirable man. He is [...]
Abstract: The first half of the Review focuses on the impacts and risks arising from uncontrolled climate change, and on the costs and opportunities associated with action to tackle it. A sound understanding of the economics of risk is critical here. The Review emphasises that economic models over timescales of centuries do not offer precise [...]